Will Publishing Follow the Music Industry?
A recent report on e-readers by Bain and Company opens with the above graph of declining turnover seen by the music industry. Will writing revenues go the way of the music industry?
Other charts of note include the adoption rates of e-readers across different market, e-reader prices and a nice summary of how writing must change and adapt to the environment.
Not surprisingly, Bains research study found that early adopters of digital reading devices and multipurpose tablets mostly are already heavy readers. They are more often men than women, describe themselves as more affluent than average and tend to be in their 20s and early 30s. They value the flexibility of reading in different settings and the new devices ease of use. Reading behaviors suggest that while digital formats are bound for a promising future and will initially be used as a complement to paper.
The second wave of the digital migration should broaden the e-readers market. Readers who told us they are considering purchasing digital devices in the near future are mostly women and are older than 35 years of age.
Which devices will be favored? According to Bain, the emerging scenario suggests a shifting balance between e-readers, such as Amazons Kindle, and multipurpose tablets, such as Apples iPad. Early on, e-readers could capture as much as a third of the market, based on a price advantage and a reading experience that closely matches that of paper. Multipurpose tablets, priced above most consumers $300 p! sycholog ical threshold, are still too expensive for mass-market adoption. Yet over time, they could predominate by capitalizing on multimedia capabilities that appeal to a broader audience and as their prices inevitably decline. Indeed, access to other media and valuable functions may open the gates on e-book penetration rates.
How will reading change? The report had a nice summary.
Hybrid: The digital era opens up books and written content to cross-breeding with other media. For instance, nonlinear reading becomes a multimedia experience. The vook, for example, adds a set of high-definition visuals to the reading experience. ScrollMotion and Sesame Street created childrens e-books that enhanced the text with audio tracks (Elmos ABC Book). Random House has also developed applications that mix text, music and narration.
Nonlinear: In new press services, websites such as Memorandum compile professional articles and political blogs, selected by an algorithm from among hundreds of sites from all ends of the opinion spectrum. The juxtaposition of such diverse content and sources offers a new reading experience, but also raises questions about the selection criteria and quality of the information.
Interactive: The readers participation in book publishing may seem incongruous in such a supply-driven industry. After all, the creative thinking usually stems from the author. Yet some experiments suggest that new formats may succeed in attracting younger, creation-hungry generations to the world of literature. In The Amanda Project, the reader is actively involved in writing a collaborative script. Given a starting point, the Internet user is prompted to continue the tale, and the best contributions are then published in paper format. On his How to Change the World blog, venture capitalist and business author Guy Kawasaki asks readers to help shape the theme and story of his next book.
Social: Finally, digital publishing has created a feedback mechanism, wh! ereby au thors can communicate directly with their audience, and readers can communicate with one another. Authonomy.com, operated by HarperCollins, helps hopeful authors create their own webpage and upload their manuscript for all visitors to see. The readers can then vote and comment on a manuscript that, if successful, is then published in paper format. Amazon recently acquired Shelfari.com, which brings together a community of readers who share their favorite books through a virtual libraryan initiative comparable to publisher Hachette Livres website MyBoox.
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