Gartner: Still no true iPad challengers through 2015

lots of tabletsMedia tablet sales are set to grow from 17.6 million last year to 326.3 million in 2015, and the bulk of them will continue to be Apple iPads. So says Gartner, which on Thursday put forth a four-year estimate of tablet sales by operating system. The numbers reflect that Apple has a large head start with a mature tablet, as all other competitors are still struggling to catch up. That premise doesnt surprise, but Gartners projected growth of QNX-powered tablets does.

Even over the next four years as competing tablets and their supporting ecosystems mature, Gartner projects that Apples iPad will hold a majority share of all tablets sales over the next four years. Android will continue to chase for the No. 2 spot but still manage just over a one-third of market share by 2015 while QNX and Microsoft slates bring up the rear. HP is considered to be out of the game completely due to abandoning the TouchPad hardware business with a massive inventory fire-sale. I think theres a very slim chance that situation reverses itself due to speculation of HP replacing its current CEO, Leo Apotheker.

Heres how Gartner sees the tablet market taking shape, with all figures in thousands:

A few thoughts jump to mind. First, I dont doubt Apples dominance in the tablet market throughout the next few years. If anything, I think its understated by the estimates. T! hats not to say the iPad is the best tablet for everyone, but it currently has the broadest customer appeal and most mature ecosystem for applications and services. Apple gave itself a good 18 month lead in the market and others are stillscramblingto offer a fully comparable tablet experience.

I also wonder how Amazons upcoming tablet plays into the estimates as we already know the device is based on Android, even if it is heavily customized so as to hide Googles interface. The same holds true for the popular and extensible Barnes & Noble Nook Color, which ought to see a hardware refresh in the near future. I suspect that with weak sales of traditional Android tablets, these combination e-readers / tablets will make up the bulk of Android tablet sales, but Gartner makes no comment on that aspect.

And then theres QNX. Earlier this week, I noted that Research In Motion shipped a scant 200,000 PlayBook tablets with QNX in the most recent quarter. That figure follows an estimated 500,000 PlayBook shipped in the quarter prior to that. The data reflects shipped PlayBooks, not actual sales and even if they were sales, I dont see how Gartner expects RIM to sell 3 million PlayBooks this year. Even with a software update to add native e-mail and support for Android applications, it appears impossible that RIM will sell 2.3 million tablets or more between now and the end of 2011.

Its too early to call out any numbers for Microsoft tablets, although a touch-friendly Metro interface and ARM processor support for Windows 8 gets Microsoft in the game. Gartner expects areasonablyquick uptake once Windows tablets arrive, but Ill wait and see the final product before t! aking a stab at sales. Regardless, the iPad is still the once and future king of tablets; at least for the next few years.

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