Analyst: Apple to skip iPad mini in 2012, keep low-cost iPad 2 instead

Apples plans for a 7-inch iPad are a very hot topic heading into the new year, but they may not bear any tangible fruit for consumers in 2012. Wedge Partners analyst Brian Blair told AllThingsD he doesnt think its in the cards, even though Apple definitely seems to have been testing the idea.

The 7-inch iPad has been in testing at Apple for over a year, according to what Blair told AllThingsDs John Paczkowski, but the firm doesnt expect the company to release anything for the public based on that design in 2012. That runs contrary to reports weve heard earlier, including one from last week that suggested a 7.85-inch device was set for a late 2012 introduction, based on supply chain information.

My colleague Kevin Tofel suggested that there were good reasons to believe a smaller iPad could indeed be on the way; these include portability, credible competition in that space, dwindling iPod touch sales and a lower price point. Blair thinks that price is the main issue Apple actually has to address in terms of keeping the competition in check, and suggests that Apple can work on that element without compromising on a screen too small to express the software, as Jobs has described the 7-inch form factor.

Instead, Wedge Partners sees Apple keeping the iPad 2 as part of its lineup following the introduction of an iPad 3, and just dropping the price of the iPad 2. Its a strategy weve seen Apple use with the iPhone; it keeps the previous generation device available as a lower-cost option, and with the iPhone 4S launch, it even kept the iPhone from t! wo model s ago, which can be had for free on contract in the U.S.

Obviously, Apple didnt do this with the original iPad as a low-cost alternative to the iPad 2 this year when the newer tablet was introduced, but the situation has changed. When the iPad 2 came out, there was no tablet competitor that posed any real threat to Apples dominance. Now, the Kindle Fire appears to be doing well, and Apple has to consider that others will join it and Barnes & Noble with an end-run at the low end of the market. Also, the iPad 2 offered relatively little in terms of big splashy changes over the original; if an iPad 3 comes packing a Retina Display, as rumors suggest, it should be a big enough upgrade to allow the iPad 2 to remain on sale without drawing too many sales away from the newer device, especially if Apple cuts the storage on the older device to 8 GB, as it has traditionally done with older iPhones.

A cheaper iPad 2 alongside the iPad 3 is a way for Apple to have its cake and eat it too. It can press the advantages of a larger screen, while also competing on price, which would work well from a marketing perspective (Bigger is better. But not more expensive). Well have to wait and see to find out what Apple actually does, but Blairs thinking makes an awful lot of sense to this Apple watcher.

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